What's typical? Based on historical weather records dating back to 1950, a typical year will bring 12 tropical storms with sustained winds of 39 mph, of which six turn into hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or greater, and three major hurricanes category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Should we focus on the number of storms? Yes and no. The only storms most of us need to worry about are those that actually make landfall, which can have little correlation to the total number of storms in any given season. For example, 2010 was an extremely busy season, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Yet no hurricane, and only one tropical storm, made landfall in the US that year.
On a lucky streak, Florida has not had a landfalling hurricane in the past decade. Historically, North and South Carolina get many fewer landfallling hurricanes than Florida. And curiously, Georgia—which lies between Florida and the Carolinas—gets the fewest of any of them.
What does it mean for my vacation plans? Statistically, there is a very low risk that a storm will impact your vacation. Still, if you're planning to vacation in Florida, the Gulf Coast, or the Caribbean during hurricane season, you might consider buying travel insurance or opting for a hotel with a hurricane guarantee. Typically, if your trip is cancelled or interrupted due to a storm, you can be refunded up to the limit of coverage. Note that in most cases, insurance must be purchased more than 24 hours before a hurricane is named.
How can I stay on top of hurricane warnings? If you're traveling to a hurricane-prone destination, download the Hurricane app from the American Red Cross for storm updates and a slew of helpful features.
Predictions for 2015 Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”.
CEO David Dilley says that while the past two hurricane seasons (2013 and 2014) were dominated by hostile upper atmospheric winds that suppressed tropical activity, the next few years will enter a natural “Climate Pulse Enhancement Cycle” that will be favorable for more active and intense hurricane seasons.
The Atlantic Basin experiences on the average 11 to 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. GWO predicts the 2015 hurricane season to be a little above average and more dangerous, with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In addition, GWO is predicting three Hurricane Hot Spots along the United States coastline that are at high risk for hurricane activity this year, with at least 1 major hurricane likely.
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